Publication date (electronic): 30 June 2015
An agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions
Pablo-Martí is Professor at the Department of Economics and a research associate of the Institute for Economic and Social Analysis at the University of Alcala (Spain). He was Visiting Researcher at the Institute for Development Strategies in the University of Indiana. His main research areas are Regional Economics and Agent Based Simulation. He was adviser of the Ministry of Industry of the Spanish Government and the European Commission. Prof. Pablo-Martí holds a PhD in Economics from Universidad de Alcalá (Madrid) and a Master in Industrial Economics from Universidad Carlos III (Madrid).
Juan Luis Santos is Master in Applied Economic Analysis (University Complutense of Madrid and Univeristy of Alcala) and Master in Systems Engineering (URJC). Currently he is in the last stages of his PhD research 'Big data in multiagent systems: market design solutions' under the supervision of professors Tomás Mancha Navarro and Vicente Esteve at University of Alcala. He participated in MOSIPS project from 2011 to 2015 developing a complex agent-based model. He is a member of the project ‘Analysis of systemic risk in EU countries: Implications for Poland’ under the supervision of Andrzej Wojtyna since March 2014.
Jagoda Kaszowska is Master in Mathematics (Jagellonian University) and B.A. in Economics (University of Alcala). Currently she is about to complete her PhD studies and to defend her thesis "The role of systemic risk in the origin, course and effects of financial crisis in the EU countries" under supervision of professor Andrzej Wojtyna. Since March 2014, she is also working on the project "Analysis of systemic risk in EU countries: Implications for Poland" (funded by National Science Centre) under his supervision.
The aims of this paper are to present and to discuss an agent-based model of population dynamics for the European regions at NUTS 3 level. It includes individuals that perform several activities with bounded rationality. The paper briefly discusses the latest novelties on this topic and then describes the processes to prepare a data base with the necessary information to feed and calibrate the model. Then it is presented the initialization module. It generates individual heterogeneity according to average and marginal aggregate distributions of the included variables that characterize the agents. In order to simulate the mechanisms of migration our model creates an artificial labor demand at regional level using simple but effective rules based on mainstream economic theory. The rest of the model is also presented: education, pairing, aging and deceases. A set of scenarios is defined and the regional aggregates are computed. Hence, the results are prepared to be visualized with tables, graphics and maps.
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